BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, RUNE and WIF face their moment of truth

Market Direction Brief

Bitcoin (BTC): Currently, BTC faces significant resistance levels between $43,900 and $44,200-$44,900. Overcoming these levels could pave the way towards $47,000. However, if it fails to break through, there's a risk of further decline.

Ethereum (ETH): ETH is caught between a support level at $2,200 and resistance at $2,340. The direction of the breakout from this range is expected to influence its next major price movements.

Market Outlook: The upcoming days are pivotal, potentially setting the stage for a decisive market move upwards or a downturn to new lows.

In-depth Analysis

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Coinbasics sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

BTC update

Current Status: Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a stable market mechanic standpoint.

• Open Interest (OI): There's been a slight increase in Open Interest over recent days, yet it remains significantly lower than the peaks observed before the ETF hype in early January.

• Funding Rate: The funding rate is steady at 0.01%, indicating a balanced market without significant long or short bias.

• Leverage: There's no substantial leverage accumulation detected, which minimizes the likelihood of forced liquidations or market flushes.

Conclusion: The market conditions for BTC appear healthy and devoid of immediate systemic risks, signaling a stable outlook for now.

Technical analysis

• BTC is battling at a key level here, having bounced nicely on local timeframes with price and now trying to reclaim the uptrend line.

• Above the current price, there are a number of resistances: the horizontal resistance of $43,900 and the orange box of $44,200 to $44,900.

• If price does break down, the key horizontal level that price will need to hold (or risk a more substantial sell-off) is the $40,900 level.

• A positive for the argument of further price upside here is that the RSI is still quite subdued, nowhere near overbought territory yet, meaning this current move may still have more room in it to go higher.

Coinbasics's BTC Analysis 📉🔍

• Facing Resistance: Challenges at the local uptrend line, $43,900, and the "orange box."

• Potential Outcome: Struggle to surpass $44,000 may highlight altcoins. 🌟

• Forecast: Possibility of decline, though recent strength reduces certainty.

Advice: Caution advised as BTC approaches key resistance levels. 🚦

ETH update

Open Interest (OI): Currently, ETH’s Open Interest levels are within normal ranges, indicating a stable market environment without any immediate concerns.

Funding Rate: The funding rate is slightly below 0.01%. This suggests a mild inclination among traders to take short positions on ETH, though without significant overweight in the market.

Technical analysis

• Like BTC, ETH is at a real key juncture here. Price broke below the $2,340 horizontal support but bounced from $2,200.

• Price has moved higher and tested the $2,340 horizontal level, now finding it as new resistance.

• Price is also holding a local uptrend.

• Therefore, price is squeezing into the pinpoint where the horizontal resistance meets the local uptrend line. As price squeezes into this pinpoint, it can lead the price to break violently.

• If price can break to the upside, we see $2,460 as a likely target, potentially quickly. However, if price breaks down, $2,210 will likely be tested.

• The RSI is clean - ETH is in a very middle territory, suggesting there is room for price to move in either direction.

Coinbasics's ETH Analysis 🧐📊

• Situation: ETH is at a key decision point with uncertain market direction.

• Outlook: Leaning towards potential downside but noting recent altcoin strength.

• Action: Monitor ETH closely in the coming days for trend indicators.

Bottom Line: Be prepared for volatility, with a cautious eye on a possible decline.

SOL update

Open Interest (OI): SOL’s OI has surged, nearing the peaks experienced during the euphoric phase of December. This indicates a significant increase in market participation and interest.

Funding Rate: With a steady rate of 0.01%, the funding dynamics suggest that while there is a notable leverage accumulation, it does not point towards a clear market direction.

Technical analysis

• SOL is another coin that's at a really crucial point here. The main uptrend line has been key throughout the past few months.

• Once price lost the uptrend line, the move down was relatively violent, although price bounced nicely off of the $79 horizontal support.

• Price then managed to break out of the downtrend line, which sent price to the orange box, as we expected it would.

• We also notice that price has tried to get some relief to the upside slightly and seems, for now, to have rejected into the underside of the uptrend line.

• If the rejection stands here, then $93 is the first level of interest.

Coinbasics's SOL Strategy 📉💼

• Buy Zone 1: Adding to SOL holdings between $79 - $86.

• Buy Zone 2: More aggressive purchases if SOL drops below $79.

• All-In Range: If SOL hits $59 - $65, we're going all out.

Strategy: Eyeing dips for strategic buys, with a keen eye on SOL's potential rebound.

RUNE update

RUNE’s mechanics are clean. OI is at a low to normal level, while Funding is flat at 0.01%.

Technical analysis

• Following a bounce from the yellow box, price moved up and broke out of the local downtrend.

• However, price has now found resistance at the horizontal resistance of $4.78, an area we have identified for a long while now.

• If price can break above the red downtrend line and the $4.78 horizontal resistance, then price could get a nice move up. However, we may not see price getting above this level.

• The RSI is at 51, so there is room to go either way.

  

Coinbasics's RUNE Outlook 🔄📉

Our feeling was that price could actually do a bit better than it has.

• Expected better: Hoped for $5.30, but hit resistance at $4.78.

• Next move: Likely retesting the 'yellow box' area. Less chance it holds, possibly leading to a further drop.

• However, anticipate some stabilization at the 'yellow box' for a while.

LINK update

The mechanics are not good for LINK.

OI is up massively, although the Funding rate is flat at 0.01%. There is a lot of leverage here, but balance positionally. This will get a flush out in our opinion

Technical analysis

• LINK has had a really strong move up that we certainly didn't expect so soon.

• LINK is now battling at the main horizontal resistance of $17.74. If the price can settle above, then LINK could run further.

• To the downside, the mid-level would be the next level of support at $15.33.

• The RSI is now somewhat concerning and suggests some caution here. Pushing 77 on the RSI is very overbought.

Coinbasics's LINK approach

• Current Trend: Positive movement noted.

• Forecast: Expecting a drop soon.

• Action Trigger: Watch for a higher high with RSI bearish divergence next week to short LINK.

WIF update

• WIF has now fully retraced the breakout move and is attempting to find support at $0.1974.

• Price did reject from the orange box. One of our analysts did Short this, with too tight a Stop Loss and lost the trade. Oh well. Overall, the orange box worked well.

• There are key horizontal supports below the current price. We have $0.1974, $0.1587 and then $0.1268.

Coinbasics's WIF take 🎯

• Potential Support: $0.12 to $0.19, but cautious of the wide range.

• Ideal Buy: Targeting $0.12 for an attractive entry point.

• Risk Management: Avoid buying at $0.19 to prevent a potential 40% loss if it drops to $0.12.

• Strategy: Patiently wait for $0.12 before considering a new position, recognizing the high ask but valuing the optimal entry